State of Data — Sean Cai, Independent / State of Data
Jul 26, 2026 · 18:22
Sean Cai argues data markets, not compute, are now the binding constraint for turning generalist AI into expert systems, with the supply chain unbundling from vertical giants into specialist vendors. He distinguishes Type I (real workflow capture) from contrived Type II data, noting the industry sells Type II as Type I. He introduces Verifier's Law—ease of training proportional to task verifiability—to predict domain maturity: code first, then biology, security, finance. He exposes benchmark psychosis: a single number under one scaffold is a noisy sample, requiring cross-harness differencing. Labs like Anthropic's data spending forecasts product launches (e.g., cybersecurity data in January led to Claude Cyber in March). Data companies like Mercor pivot to enterprise, and Cai builds Antikythera mechanisms to monetize real-world workflows and provide RL-as-a-service.
